Will Japan Continue to Buy U.S. Beef?

Economic Tidbits 12.18.17

The beef sector has been largely unphased by the ongoing U.S. trade disputes with other countries. Fortunately, trade quarrels with the largest U.S. beef customers, South Korea and Japan, have been avoided. According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), through October of last year, the value of overall U.S. beef exports was up 19 percent compared to the previous year. Exports to Japan were up 15 percent and those to South Korea were up 50 percent. Japan was the largest U.S. customer, purchasing nearly $1.5 billion in U.S. beef. For Nebraska, the nation’s largest beef exporter, these exports have helped offset the less than stellar export performance of other agricultural commodities.

steakNebraska beef producers need exports to grow again in 2019 to help offset the expected growth in beef production. However, the launch of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) at the beginning of the year could be a headwind for increased export growth. The CPTPP is comprised of 11 countries, including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, and Japan. It was resurrected from the ashes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) of which the U.S. was a part until President Trump withdrew in January 2017. Under the CPTPP, Japan will lower tariffs on beef imports from CPTPP members over a 15-year period. Japanese beef purchases from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico will have reduced tariff rates and purchases of U.S. beef will continue to face higher tariffs, placing U.S. exports at a competitive disadvantage.

Australian beef is the primary competitor to U.S. beef in Japan. A report by the University of Tennessee showed the shifts in beef suppliers to Japan could be significant under the CPTPP. According to the report, “For chilled beef, lower tariffs appear to benefit Australian beef, at the expense of U.S. beef. The projection range suggests that Australian beef could increase by as much as $139 million, while U.S. beef could decrease by as much as $143 million.” Analysis by the USMEF echoes the University of Tennessee findings, “. . . the U.S. share of Japan’s growing beef imports is expected to decline, from 43 percent to 36 percent by 2023, and to 30 percent by 2028. Due to widening tariff disadvantages and lost opportunities, U.S. beef annual export losses by 2023 are estimated at $550 million, and will exceed $1.2 billion by 2028. On a per-head basis, losses are estimated at $20.40 by 2023 and $43.75 by 2028.”

The Trump Administration is in the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with Japan. The specter of the potential losses in beef exports has many in U.S. agriculture encouraging the Administration to see these negotiations to a successful end sooner rather than later. A trade agreement with CPTTP-like tariff reductions on U.S. beef would level the playing field and help maintain U.S. market share in Japan’s large and growing market. Nebraska, more than any other state, needs to see these negotiations be successful.

 

Jay RempeJay Rempe is the senior economist for Nebraska Farm Bureau. Rempe’s background in agricultural economics, years of experience in advocating at the state capitol, and a firm grasp of issues allow him to quantify the fiscal impact of a regulatory proposal, and provide an in-depth examination of key issues affecting Nebraska’s farmers and ranchers.

Why Do I Show Cattle?

emily g1

I have been a part of the show industry for about ten years now and I still get asked the simple question “Why do you show cattle?”. As I grew older and became more knowledgeable about the show industry, this was one of the best questions anyone could ask me. Being able to talk about something I love and learned so much from is beyond the best. I have grown up on our family farm and cow/calf operation all my life and there is nothing I am more proud to be a part of. Showing allowed me to fall in love with the cattle industry and gave me the chance to be successful in something that isn’t easy and takes a lot of hard work, but why do I show?

Showing cattle has taught me how to accept failure and move on from it. There is no worse feeling than receiving no achievement for all the hard work I put into these cattle but losing has taught me to push myself to be better. Trust me, any show kid knows how much work we put into our livestock. Waking up right when the summer sun is coming up to beat the heat to rinse, exercise, blow out, and feed these spoiled animals is not easy. Every single day we are pushing ourselves for the hope to have our cattle to their best potential at the end of the year.

emily g2

Showing has brought my family closer together. I would not be where I am today without the help of my family. The miles on the road, fast food suppers, and all the laughs is something I will always cherish. My little brother, Nicholas, just started showing a couple years ago and he is already doing better than me. I am so excited to teach him and watch where he goes with the industry I fell in love with so long ago. My Dad has pushed me to be where I am today and was the one who started this incredible journey for me. He has taught me so much and I will never be able to thank him enough.  My mom has never missed a show once and the endless support I receive from her and the rest of my family is something I will always be grateful for.

I have met so many great friends and families from the showing industry that I know I will always have lasting relationships with. I know I can always count on them for a helping hand to fit a leg, carry tack, move cattle to the wash rack, or even just a nice conversation. I have to thank the show industry for all the amazing people I have met and continue to meet.

Not only has showing helped me develop better personal qualities to be a more well-rounded, successful person, but it also introduced me to something I will continue to hold on to. Through all the hard work each and every day I put into my show cattle, I know I will always continue to do my best.

So, why do I show? It is my life, my passion, and my happiness.

 

Emily GroetekeEmily Groeteke is a junior at Boone Central High School. After graduation, she plans on attending the University of Nebraska Lincoln and plans on majoring in Agribusiness and a minor in Animal Science. She is very active in many activities, especially 4-H and FFA. Agriculture is the main focus in her life, and will continue a future in this industry.

 

 

Tariff Threats No Longer Just Bluster

Economic Tidbits 12.18.17

Last week marked a new extreme in the trade tensions between the U.S. and China as President Trump moved forward with tariffs on $34 billion of imported Chinese machinery, auto parts, and medical devices.  China responded immediately with tariffs on several U.S. products including soybeans and pork.  Several U.S. trading partners have now imposed tariffs on U.S. commodities and processed foods in response to tariffs imposed by the U.S.  With all the threats and tariffs imposed, it’s difficult to stay abreast of where things now stand.  Table 1 summarizes recent tariffs enacted by other countries on U.S. agricultural products which will affect Nebraska.  Continue reading

Trade Deficits: Good or Bad?

Economic Tidbits 12.18.17

The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world has been getting a lot of attention lately.  In January, the deficit was estimated to be $56.6 billion, the highest level in nearly a decade.  President Trump believes the trade deficit is bad and argues the U.S. is losing to other countries with which it trades.  Accordingly, he believes the U.S. must renegotiate trade agreements and enact tariffs on imported goods to rectify the large deficits.  The President’s arguments raise two questions:  Are trade deficits inherently bad? And, is the U.S. losing to the rest of the world by having such large trade deficits?  Continue reading

Beyond the Beef: The Many Uses of Cattle

beef byproducts

When you think of cattle what do you think of? Most might say something along the lines of steak or hamburger, but have you ever thought about the everyday products that may use some other less obvious parts of the beef animal? By-products are secondary items that are produced in addition to the main product. For as long as humans have used animals as a food source, their by-products have been just as important. For cattle-the obvious main product is meat, but cattle provide numerous byproducts that we use daily. Through manufacturing processes, parts of the animals such as the hide, bones, hair, and fatty acids can be made into important industrial, household and health products. In fact, 99% of the beef animal is utilized!

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The Truth Behind Fear Based Marketing and Modern Agricultural Practices

The other day I decided to treat myself to a large bowl of ice cream. I was feeling like it needed a little extra something, so I decided to add some chocolate syrup and whipped cream. When I looked at the can of whipped cream, I had somewhat of an epiphany when I saw a bold label that said, “No Artificial Growth Hormones.”  I stared at the label as an agriculturalist and an advocate for the industry and began to understand why there is such a distrust between consumers and producers.

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Nebraska County Export Values . . .

 

Economic Tidbits logoInternational trade and foreign markets are critical to Nebraska agriculture.  To get a sense of which Nebraska counties are most reliant on international trade, the Nebraska Department of Agriculture has created a map showing export values by county for select commodities (see below).  Commodities included are beef and beef products, corn, dairy products, distillers grains, ethanol, pork and pork products, pulses, sorghum, soybeans and soybean products and wheat.  The map was created using 2015 Nebraska cash receipts data and attributing shares to counties based on county production data.  Platte County topped the state with export values of $245 million.  Custer, Holt, Boone and Cuming Counties fall in the next tier with export values between $125-$150 million.  Most counties in Nebraska generate at least $25 million in export values, which no doubt contributes significantly to their local economies.

The top counties stand to gain the most from increased access to foreign markets.  Free trade agreements with Mexico, Canada, Korea, Colombia and others, while benefitting all counties, have been particularly beneficial to these counties.  An analysis last year of the benefits of the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) by Nebraska Farm Bureau showed many of these same counties would have benefited from the $378 million in increased receipts Nebraska was projected to receive under the agreement.  The map clearly demonstrates it is in the interest of Nebraska agriculture to continue to press for more open international markets in agricultural products.
county exports

 

Jay Rempe is the senior economist for Nebraska Farm Bureau. Rempe’s background in agricultural economics, years of experience in advocating at the state capitol, and firm grasp of issues allow him to quantify the fiscal impact of a regulatory proposal, and provide in-depth examination of key issues affecting Nebraska’s farmers and ranchers.